China's trade surplus tops $1 trillion as its exports surge while
imports lag behind
[December 08, 2025] By
CHAN HO-HIM
HONG KONG (AP) — China’s exports returned to growth in November after an
unexpected contraction in October, pushing its trade surplus in dollar
terms for 2025 past the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according
to data released Monday.
Exports climbed 5.9% from a year earlier in November while imports rose
just under 2%.
The customs data released on Monday also showed that shipments to the
U.S. dropped nearly 29% year-on-year. But as trade with the U.S.
weakens, China is diversifying its export markets throughout Southeast
Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America.
China's exports had contracted just over 1% in October. November's
worldwide exports of $330.3 billion exceeded economists’ estimates.
Imports totaled $218.6 billion for the month.
The nearly $1.08 trillion trade surplus for the first 11 months of this
year is a record high, surpassing the $992 billion surplus for all of
2024, based on official data compiled by FactSet.
While exports from China to the U.S. have fallen for most of the year,
shipments have surged to other destinations, including Southeast Asia,
Latin America, Africa and the European Union.
A year-long trade truce between China and the U.S. was reached at a
meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi
Jinping in late October in South Korea. The U.S. has lowered its tariffs
on China, and China has promised to halt its export controls related to
rare earths.
“It’s likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff
cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” ING Bank chief
economist for Greater China Lynn Song wrote in a report.
China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month in
November, according to an official survey, and economists said it was
still early to determine whether there was a real rebound in external
demand following the U.S.-China trade truce.
With exports still going strong, economists generally expect China to
meet its target of around 5% annual growth for this year.
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Vehicles and trucks for export wait for transportation from a
port in Yantai in eastern China's Shandong province on Jan. 2, 2025.
(Chinatopix via AP, File)
 Chinese leaders outlined a focus on
advanced manufacturing for the next five years following a
high-level meeting in October.
An annual meeting was held on Monday, led by Xi, to map out plans
for 2026, according to the Xinhua state news agency. It said Chinese
leaders reiterated a focus on “pursuing progress while ensuring
stability."
A readout from Xinhua said China needs to better coordinate its
domestic economic work in the face of global “trade struggles.”
The recent stabilization of trade relations with Washington is
unlikely to last long, said Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist, BNP
Paribas Asset Management, as China-U.S. relations “remain in a
stalemate” despite their temporary trade truce.
Still, some economists believe that China will continue to gain
export market share in coming years.
Morgan Stanley predicts by 2030, China’s market share in global
exports will reach 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, fueled by its
edge in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as
electric vehicles, robotics and batteries.
“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20
economies taking up active industrial policies, we believe China
will gain more share in the global goods export market,” Morgan
Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya said in a recent note.
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