How a weaker dollar is quietly making life more expensive
[May 04, 2026] By
MATT SEDENSKY
NEW YORK (AP) — A hidden force is quietly pushing up costs for
everything from your summer vacation to your weekly grocery bills: a
weaker U.S. dollar.
The dollar has fallen about 10% against other major currencies since
President Donald Trump returned to the White House, a pullback
potentially playing a role in Americans’ concerns about affordability.
“It’s kind of a hidden tax,” says economist Thomas Savidge of the
conservative-leaning American Institute for Economic Research. “What
your dollar is going to be able to buy is going to shrink.”
A look at where the dollar stands and what it means for you:
Historic dollar decline
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against other major
currencies, logged its steepest six-month drop in more than 50 years in
the first half of 2025. Though the decline hasn’t deepened, the dollar
index is still about 10% lower than the start of Trump’s term.
A strong dollar makes imports cheaper and can help keep inflation in
check. A weak one can increase prices on foreign goods but boost
American exports.
U.S. presidents have long voiced support for a strong dollar even as
they pursued policies that, at times, pushed the currency lower. Trump
has suggested a strong dollar puts the U.S. at a disadvantage and that a
weak dollar helps American industry. And as with most things with Trump,
he's been blunter in his messaging.
“You make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar,” he said last
year, one of a number of public statements showing his preference for
seeing the dollar decline.
Big multinationals benefit
Trump isn’t alone in seeing benefits of a weaker buck.
In recent months, corporate earnings calls have been peppered with talk
of how a weaker dollar has helped companies from Philip Morris to
Coca-Cola, with executives pulling out C-suite phrases like “favorable
currency impact” to note how the dip brought tailwinds outside the U.S.
that added to bottom lines.
“In many cases, we’ve got a weaker dollar, which is not unhelpful,” Elie
Maalouf, the CEO of InterContinental Hotels, said on a February call as
the company announced higher profits and revenues.
For big multinational companies that do business overseas, a weaker
dollar can spur sales for products that suddenly become cheaper. But the
vast majority of U.S. businesses are not operating beyond the border.
For those catering to domestic customers, it's a different story,
particularly if they are reliant on importing goods.
Travis Madeira, a fourth-generation lobsterman who founded the
lobster-shipping business LobsterBoys with his brother, makes about 80%
of his sales to Americans, unlike some competitors who primarily export.
“The exporters are gonna have the advantage when it comes to the dollar
weakening,” says Madeira, who is paying more to import bait and buy
Canadian lobsters. “These guys are gonna have a little bit of a lever on
us.”
Smaller companies hurt
Even among companies that do have a presence outside the U.S., the
dollar's fall can have an impact. While many big companies hedge
currency to try and insulate themselves or push more sales overseas,
smaller businesses are often more susceptible to the turbulence.
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This Wednesday, June 6, 2018, file photo shows U.S. currently in New
York. AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey, File)
 David Navazio, CEO of
Pennsylvania-based Gentell, which makes bandages and other medical
supplies, operates plants in Brazil, Paraguay, Canada, New Zealand
and the United Kingdom. In each location, the dollar has fallen,
increasing Gentell’s costs.
Gentell has had to raise some prices to reflect the currency
fluctuation, which stacks on top of other challenges, including
tariffs and war-related spikes to fuel costs.
“A year ago, none of these were concerns,” he says. “And it always
hurts the consumer.”
Other currencies rise
For the American consumer, the reality of a declining dollar is most
obvious during foreign travel or when making a purchase directly
from an international seller.
Cross the border into Mexico, the top foreign destination of
Americans, and your dollar is about 16% weaker versus the peso
compared with early 2025. Declines of about 10% to 17% have been
recorded elsewhere, including against the Swiss franc, South African
rand, Danish krone, Swedish krona and the Euro.
As for goods imported to the U.S., there is an impact, but it's
harder to gauge. Many economists estimate that, in advanced
countries like the U.S., only about 5% to 10% of a currency dip is
passed on to consumers.
But they are an added stress when prices are already affected by
other factors.
Take coffee, one of the grocery items that has seen the biggest
price hike in the past year. Brazil is the biggest source of coffee
for the U.S. and the dollar has fallen around 13% versus its real.
Currency fluctuations can hit harder in developing economies and,
while only a fraction of the change may feed into coffee’s
ballooning price, every bit can pile up. Coffee prices are up nearly
19% in the U.S. in the past year, according to government data.
Expect more movement
Currency values are constantly moving and, while the dollar’s recent
fall is notable, it has reached lower levels at points in the
presidencies of each of Trump’s predecessors, back through the
creation of the Dollar Index in 1973, when Richard Nixon was at the
helm.
Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economist and former chief
economist at the International Monetary Fund, says while “a lot of
policies that Trump is doing are something of a cancer for the
dollar,” he believes that it was destined to fall no matter who was
in charge.
“The dollar had been on a 15-year bull run,” he said. “I would argue
the dollar is still wildly overvalued, and over the next maybe five
or six years, it might fall 15%.”
What does that mean for American consumers? Rogoff says commodity
prices are likely to rise, particularly with the impact of the Iran
war on fuel prices.
“They’re just going to go up,” he says, “no matter what the dollar’s
at.”
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