Starlink in the crosshairs: How Russia could attack Elon Musk's
conquering of space
[December 22, 2025] By
JOHN LEICESTER
Two NATO-nation intelligence services suspect Russia is developing a new
anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk's Starlink constellation with
destructive orbiting clouds of shrapnel, with the aim of reining in
Western space superiority that has helped Ukraine on the battlefield.
Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say the so-called
“zone-effect” weapon would seek to flood Starlink orbits with hundreds
of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple
satellites at once but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to
other orbiting systems.
Analysts who haven't seen the findings say they doubt such a weapon
could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies
and countries, including Russia and its ally China, that rely on
thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense and other
vital needs.
Such repercussions, including risks to its own space systems, could
steer Moscow away from deploying or using such a weapon, analysts said.
“I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t,” said Victoria Samson, a
space-security specialist at the Secure World Foundation who leads the
Colorado-based nongovernmental organization’s annual study of
anti-satellite systems. “I would be very surprised, frankly, if they
were to do something like that.”
But the commander of the Canadian military's Space Division, Brig. Gen.
Christopher Horner, said such Russian work cannot be ruled out in light
of previous U.S. allegations that Russia also has been pursuing an
indiscriminate nuclear, space-based weapon.
“I can’t say I’ve been briefed on that type of system. But it’s not
implausible,” he said. “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system
is accurate and that they’re willing to develop that and willing to go
to that end, well it wouldn’t strike me as shocking that something just
short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse of
development.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn't respond to messages from the AP
seeking comment. Russia has previously called for United Nations efforts
to stop the orbital deployment of weapons and President Vladimir Putin
has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear space weapons.
Weapon would have multiple targets
The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on condition that the
services involved were not identified and the news organization was not
able to independently verify the findings' conclusions.
The U.S. Space Force didn't respond to e-mailed questions. The French
military's Space Command said in a statement to the AP that it could not
comment on the findings but said, “We can inform you that Russia has, in
recent years, been multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even
hostile actions in space.”
Russia views Starlink in particular as a grave threat, the findings
indicate. The thousands of low-orbiting satellites have been pivotal for
Ukraine’s survival against Russia's full-scale invasion, now in its
fourth year.
Starlink's high-speed internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for
battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other roles and by
civilians and government officials where Russian strikes have affected
communications.
Russian officials repeatedly have warned that commercial satellites
serving Ukraine's military could be legitimate targets. This month,
Russia said it has fielded a new ground-based missile system, the S-500,
which is capable of hitting low-orbit targets.
Unlike a missile that Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a defunct Cold
War-era satellite, the new weapon in development would target multiple
Starlinks at once, with pellets possibly released by yet-to-be launched
formations of small satellites, the intelligence findings say.
Canada's Horner said it is hard to see how clouds of pellets could be
corralled to only strike Starlink and that debris from such an attack
could get “out of control in a hurry.”
"You blow up a box full of BBs,” he said. Doing that would “blanket an
entire orbital regime and take out every Starlink satellite and every
other satellite that’s in a similar regime. And I think that’s the part
that is incredibly troubling.”
System is possibly just experimental
The findings seen by the AP didn't say when Russia might be capable of
deploying such a system nor detail whether it has been tested or how far
along research is believed to be.
[to top of second column] |
In this time-exposure photograph, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket
with the 25th batch of approximately 60 satellites for SpaceX's
Starlink broadband network lifts off from the Space Launch Complex
40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral,
Fla., late Wednesday, April 28, 2021. (AP Photo/John Raoux, File)
 The system is in active development
and information about the timing of an expected deployment is too
sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the
findings and other related intelligence that the AP did not see. The
official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the nonpublic
findings.
Such Russian research could be simply experimental, Samson said.
“I wouldn’t put it past some scientists ... to build out something
like this because it’s an interesting thought-experiment and they
think, you know, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to
pay for it,'" she said.
Samson suggested the specter of a supposed new Russian threat may
also be an effort to elicit an international response.
“Often times people pushing these ideas are doing it because they
want the U.S. side to build something like that or ... to justify
increased spending on counterspace capabilities or using it for a
more hawkish approach on Russia,” she said.
“I’m not saying that this is what’s happening with this," Samson
added. “But it has been known to happen that people take these crazy
arguments and use them.”
Tiny pellets could remain undetected
The intelligence findings say the pellets would be so small — just
millimeters across — that they would evade detection by ground- and
space-based systems that scan for space objects, which could make it
hard to pin blame for any attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weaponry at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington,
D.C.-based security and policy think tank, said if “the pellets are
not trackable, that complicates things” but “people would figure it
out.”
“If satellites start winking out with damage, I guess you could put
two and two together," he said.
Exactly how much destruction tiny pellets could do isn't clear. In
November, a suspected impact by a small piece of debris was
sufficient to damage a Chinese spacecraft that was meant to bring
three astronauts back to the Earth.
“Most damage would probably be done to the solar panels because
they’re probably the most fragile part” of satellites, Swope said.
“That’d be enough, though, to damage a satellite and probably bring
it offline.”
‘Weapon of fear’ could threaten chaos
After such an attack, pellets and debris would over time fall back
toward Earth, possibly damaging other orbiting systems on their way
down, analysts say.
Starlink's orbits are about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the
planet. China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space
Station operate at lower orbits, “so both would face risks,”
according to Swope.
The space chaos that such a weapon could cause might enable Moscow
to threaten its adversaries without actually having to use it, Swope
said.
“It definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of
deterrence or something,” he said.
Samson said the drawbacks of an indiscriminate pellet-weapon could
steer Russia off such a path.
“They’ve invested a huge amount of time and money and human power
into being, you know, a space power,” she said.
Using such a weapon “would effectively cut off space for them as
well,” Samson said. ”I don't know that they would be willing to give
up that much."
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Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.
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