A look at the Thanksgiving shopping weekend and what's next
[December 03, 2025] By
ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
NEW YORK (AP) — The nation's shoppers may feel gloomy about the economy,
but they certainly were in the mood to shop over the five-day
Thanksgiving weekend that wrapped up on Cyber Monday.
As Wall Street analysts and retailers sift through the data from the
weekend — the unofficial start to the season and a good barometer of
shoppers' financial health and the strength of the economy — the figures
show that shoppers went online and in stores to scour for deals on
everything from TVs to clothing. But all that economic uncertainty did
affect spending. Shoppers were very focused and selective, some malls
reported.
Of course, the weekend looks a lot different from 15 years ago, when
shoppers camped out in the wee hours of the morning and fought in store
aisles for doorbusters like TVs. Shoppers are still heading to stores,
but the biggest growth is online, which now accounts for 30% of total
holiday sales. That's up from 15% in 2012, according to the National
Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group.
Adobe Analytics reported Tuesday that so-called Cyber Week — the
five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday — brought in $44.2
billion online overall, up 7.7% year-over-year, bolstered by record
spending online during Black Friday.
On Cyber Monday, consumers spent $14.25 billion, up 7.1% and making it
again the year's biggest online shopping day.
National Retail Federation’s CEO Matt Shay said Tuesday that shoppers
wall off the winter holidays from all the economic noise, building a
moat around the season.
“The holidays is really very much an emotional purchase,” Shay said.
“Families plan for it. They invest in it. And as a component of the
holidays, the five-day Thanksgiving weekend is really the psychological
kickoff of the holidays.”
Based on the group's survey of shoppers from the weekend, Shay called
the period a “very solid beginning” to the holiday season.
The group still expects sales over November and December of between
$1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. That would be up 3.7% to 4.2% more
than last year.
Here's a look at the data, the discounts, and what's next for retailers
among other issues:
The latest data shows record traffic
Software company Salesforce reported that for Cyber Week — it measures
from Nov. 25 through Monday — global online sales increased to $336.6
billion, up 7% compared with the year-ago period. U.S. online sales
increased to $79.6 billion, up 5% year for that week, compared with the
year-ago period.
The Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, reported on Tuesday that
more than 235,000 people visited the iconic center on Black Friday,
making it the busiest Black Friday on record in the mall's history. The
traffic number was up 8.5% compared with the same day on 2024 and nearly
2% above pre-pandemic 2019, the mall said.
Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks in-person and online spending,
reported Saturday that overall Black Friday sales excluding automotive
rose 4.1% from a year ago. The retail sales indicator, not adjusted for
inflation, showed online sales jumped by double digits — 10.4% — while
in-store purchases inched up 1.7%.
Still, shoppers were laser-focused.
William Lewis, marketing director of Westfield Garden State Plaza in
Paramus, New Jersey, noted on Black Friday that, “People are definitely
buying.” But Lewis noted that shoppers are more targeted and have done
their homework ahead of time on social media or store sites.
“They know exactly where they are going,” he added.
Discounts were generous, but don't expect them to get better
Ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend, promotions didn't come as early as
last year or were more muted, according to some malls and analysts. But
for the big weekend, retailers ramped up discounting to be in line with
last year's sales event, according to Adobe and big malls like Mall of
America.
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Shoppers wait in lines before they browse through stores at Mall of
America for Black Friday deals, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025, in
Bloomington, Minn. (AP Photo/Adam Bettcher)
 But if shoppers were dilly dallying
about buying a specific sweater and waiting for the prices to go
down after this weekend, that may not be the best strategy.
Discounts won't improve on many items, and stores came into the
season with leaner inventory amid an uncertain economy, analysts
said.
Vivek Pandya, Adobe's director of Adobe Digital Insights, noted that
prior to the Thanksgiving weekend kickoff, discounts on average
ranged from 10% to 17% and then accelerated to an average range of
18% to 30% for the holiday kickoff.
But he expects that retailers will likely pull back from those
discounts and will hover a little above what shoppers saw to the
run-up of Black Friday. The exception would be poor-selling seasonal
items, which need to be sold before Dec. 25, Pandya said.
As for inventory, there were fears of empty shelves when tariff
rates ballooned in April, but analysts said stores were able to
navigate the vacillating tariff policy, bringing in goods at lower
rates.
Nikki Baird, vice president of strategy at Aptos, a retail
technology firm which works with fashion clients, noted that, “I
think consumers will continue to find the things that they’re
looking for, but there will be fewer choices.”
Some shoppers relied on artificial intelligence tools
Shoppers are using AI tools to track prices or get gift
recommendations, though the usage is still modest. On Cyber Monday,
AI traffic to U.S. retail sites — measured by shoppers clicking on a
link — increased by nearly eightfold, according to Adobe. From Nov.
1 through Dec. 1, AI traffic is up nearly ninefold, it said.
The services were used most in categories including video games,
appliances, electronics, toys, and personal care products, according
to Adobe.
Salesforce reported that across Cyber Week, AI and agents influenced
20% of all orders, accounting for $67 billion in global sales. In
the U.S., AI and agents drove 17% of orders, or $13.5 billion in
sales. The figure encompasses everything from a ChatGPT query to
AI-supplied gift suggestions on a retailer’s website.
What's next
The Thanksgiving weekend is a key barometer of spending for the
season. But with worries of rising prices, will shoppers taper their
spending as the season progresses? And what about next year?
Baird said she will be looking at the period between the
post-Thanksgiving weekend and the last week before Christmas to see
whether spending keeps up.
"I think that will help us answer the question of whether this was a
concentration of spending or a trend of spending," she said.
Tiffany Yeh, a managing director and partner at Boston Consulting
Group, believes there will be strong spending throughout the rest of
the holiday season. Her concern is what’s in store for 2026. Yeh
cited the consultancy’s shopper surveys pointing to consumers
delaying purchases in order to spend during the holidays. She
wonders if shoppers will mute their spending or instead steady their
buying.
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