LDN Business - WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%

WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East

[October 09, 2026] By JAMEY KEATEN

GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization is sharply increasing its forecast for merchandise trade growth worldwide this year, more than doubling its earlier prediction to 3.9% as booming AI investments offset a hit from the war in the Middle East.

The Geneva-based trade body says global trade chugged along at a hearty pace, as supply chains adapted and AI-related spending poured in to provide “a powerful boost to goods trade.”

WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill, left, and Robert Staiger, right, Chief Economist of WHO, talk to media about this WTO's "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" during a press conference at the headquarters of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026. (Martial Trezzini/Keystone via AP)

The revised forecast marks a big jump from an initial WTO forecast in this spring for 1.9% growth for merchandise trade. The figure excludes services trade. The trade body forecast growth next year of 4.1%, up from 2.9% predicted in March.

“The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods,” WTO said. Trade of oil and gas and fertilizer through the Persian Gulf was shaken after the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began in February.

WTO said merchandise trade grew 3.5% in the first half of the year, powered by the artificial intelligence market.

“Demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these products rose by 67% year-on-year, accelerating from the already rapid expansion seen in 2024 and 2025,” WTO said.

Robert Steiger, its chief economist, said WTO teams — like most forecasters — have been “surprised" at the strength of the AI investment boom. They anticipated that strong growth in AI-enabling goods like electronics and computers would moderate over time because of already-high growth last year and “market saturation” eventually.

“This actually has not happened. Trade in AI-enabling goods grew 16% in value terms in 2024. It grew 31% in value terms in 2025, and it grew an astonishing 67% in the first half of 2026,” he told reporters at WTO headquarters.

Liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East fell by 47% in the first half of the year, while crude oil exports dropped by nearly a quarter, WTO said. But shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline to roughly 1% for LNG and about 6% for crude.

WTO said it expects global GDP to grow 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027, even though it predicted that the Middle East conflict will continue to weigh on trade through higher energy prices and transport route disruptions.


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