China's economy accelerated in the July-September quarter on robust
exports
[October 19, 2026] By
CHAN HO-HIM
HONG KONG (AP) — China said Monday its economy grew 4.5% in the
July-September quarter from a year ago fueled by robust exports, moving
closer to meeting its official annual growth target for the year as
trading partners seek to balance their trade deficits with the country.
Economic growth accelerated from the 4.3% year-on-year rate recorded in
the April-June quarter, the slowest expansion in more than three years.
Its economy expanded 4.6% in the first three quarters.
For the whole year, Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 4.5% to
5%, down from last year’s 5% expansion. Earlier this month, the
International Monetary Fund trimmed its forecast for China’s 2026
economic growth to 4.5%, the lower end of Beijing’s goal.
“Domestic demand was weak, while trade grew strongly,” said Dave Chia,
an economist at Moody’s Analytics. Exports will likely stay strong but
global trade barriers remain a risk, he said.
Exports are strong, but domestic sluggishness remains
China’s domestic demand has been weighed down by a yearslong downturn in
its property market.
The headline official growth figure is becoming “an increasingly poor
indicator of how the broader economy is performing,” said Max Zenglein,
Asia Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board.
That’s because it masks “widening disparities across industries,
regions, and households,” Zenglein said. Beijing faces difficult
trade-offs and managing domestic imbalances may prove more challenging
than dealing with external pressures, he added.
On Monday, Mao Shengyong, deputy head of China’s National Bureau of
Statistics, cautioned of the economic challenges ahead. “The
international environment is complex and volatile, the problem of
insufficient domestic demand remains relatively prominent and the
foundation for a stable, improving economy still needs consolidation,”
he told a news conference.
With exports being one of the few bright spots, China is on track to
surpass last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus globally, after
logging a 36% growth in exports last month and already a $938 billion
surplus between January and September.
Elevated U.S. tariffs have hit some U.S.-China bilateral trade and
forced China to look elsewhere, including Southeast Asia, Latin America
and Europe. High-tech exports such as semiconductors and autos,
including hybrid and electric vehicles, are among areas driving its
export growth this year.
As China pursues self-sufficiency to help shield itself from Western
export controls and trade uncertainties, it has built up massive
domestic manufacturing capacities across industries such as solar and
EVs, which are heavily subsidized by the government. But output was
scaled up rapidly at a time of weakened domestic consumption, so many of
these goods are shipped to overseas markets at competitive prices.
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A tugboat pushes a container ship to a port in Yantai, eastern
China's Shandong province on Oct. 14, 2026. (Chinatopix via AP)
 An export-reliant growth model
that’s highly tech-driven has shown limited job creation and broad
income gains while risks of artificial intelligence-driven labor
displacements continue to grow, said Ecaterina Bigos, senior market
strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
China faces growing pressure from the EU to rebalance trade
Many trade partners fear their domestic industries and economies
face growing threats from lower-cost Chinese manufactured imports.
“It is untenable and unsustainable for the world’s second largest
economy to rely on foreign demand to prop up its own growth,” said
Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and trade policy at Cornell
University.
Through its persistent and large trade surpluses, China “has become
a drag on world growth rather than an engine that pulls the rest of
the world along,” Prasad said.
The European Union is among those impatient to reduce its trade
imbalance with China. The 27-nation bloc runs a trade deficit with
China of more than $1.1 billion a day.
For the first nine months of the year, Chinese exports to the EU
were up 16%. EU countries are eyeing more curbs on China after the
EU reached an agreement with China this month to roughly halve the
number of Chinese hybrid vehicle imports over the next few years.
China can work with other countries on disputes and it wants to keep
its market access, said Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific
at French bank Natixis. With a deal with the EU on hybrid cars, for
example, China can likely still sell more made-by-China products in
the longer run while avoiding a broad tariff hike.
Even with agreements made between China and the EU, “trade
imbalances will be difficult to resolve quickly,” said Lynn Song,
chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING.
Policymakers say an undervalued yuan, China’s currency, against the
dollar and the euro has contributed to China’s growing trade
surplus, even though China’s central bank has dismissed the claims.
“We are likely to see continued resistance, rising protectionism,
and persistent pressure from economies globally to protect their
industries, and jobs, notably in high value sectors,” noted Bigos.
China insists that it does not seek a large trade surplus. Central
bank governor Pan Gongsheng said Friday that countries with trade
deficits and those with trade surpluses should work together, and
that China, as a responsible country, is committed to expanding
domestic demand.
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