America In Focus: Fed officials divided on US inflation views; US home
prices hit all-time high
[July 13, 2026] By
MICHELLE CHAPMAN
The economy, inflation and how those forces could impact the lives of
Americans were front and center over the past week. Trips to the grocery
store or gas station are more painful than they were last year, and
rising costs are impacting the decisions of both households and
businesses.
Here’s a snapshot of prominent economic data and news that occurred over
the past week and what it potentially means for you.
IMF expects world economy to grow a sluggish 3% this year
The International Monetary Fund this week downgraded its outlook for the
world economy in 2026 citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war.
But the fallout from the conflict is being partially offset by booming
investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies.
The IMF now expects the global economy to expand by a sluggish 3% in
2026, down from 3.5% last year and from the 3.1% it had forecast for
this year back in April. The fund expects worldwide growth to rebound to
3.4% next year.
The IMF expects the U.S. economy — the world’s largest — to grow a solid
2.3% this year, up from 2.1% in 2025 and unchanged from the April
forecast. The 21 European countries that share the euro currency, hit
hard by higher energy prices, are collectively forecast to grow just
0.9% this year, down from 1.4% in 2025.
US home prices hit all-time high
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slowed in June, but a key
measure of home prices climbed to an all-time high, adding to
prospective homebuyers’ affordability challenges.
Existing home sales fell 2.4% last month from May to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, the National Association of
Realtors said this week. Sales rose 2.8% compared with June last year.
The latest sales tally fell short of the roughly 4.21 million pace
economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
Despite the lackluster sales, home prices continued to rise nationally
last month. The U.S. median sales price increased 1.8% in June from a
year earlier to $440,600, an all-time high on data going back to 1999,
NAR said. Home prices have risen on an annual basis for 36 months in a
row.
The deep divide at the US Fed over inflation
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee is split over whether
inflation is likely to stay elevated or whether it will cool once the
Iran war winds down, according to minutes released this week.
In the first set of minutes released under new Chair Kevin Warsh, “many”
of the Fed’s 19 officials said its key rate would be unchanged from or
slightly below its current level of 3.6% by the end of this year. But
they also also said that it would likely be higher by year-end.
Forecasts released after the meeting ended June 17 showed that half of
the 18 policymakers who submitted projections supported lifting rates by
the end of this year, while the other half supported keeping them
unchanged or reducing them. Warsh did not submit a forecast, reflecting
his view that doing so can lock policymakers into a specific approach
that is harder to change if the economy shifts direction.
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 Iran war may lead to 1st global
oil demand slide since pandemic
Global oil demand will likely decline this year for the first time
since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic isolated billions of people
at home, according to the International Energy Agency.
The agency expects demand to drop by 1 million barrels per day in
2026 due to higher prices and disruptions to physical supply that
weighed heavily on various parts of the world.
Most of the decline in demand has been in Asia, which is heavily
reliant on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz that has largely
been shut down to tanker traffic by the war.
Asian nations have altered workdays and made other changes to lower
energy use during the war.
One notable exception to the global slump in oil usage was in the
United States, where gasoline use increased in the second quarter of
2026, despite the fact that pump prices were almost 50% above their
pre-war levels in May.
US jobless claims dip modestly
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dipped
slightly last week as layoffs in the U.S. remain historically low.
U.S. applications for jobless aid in the week ending July 4 ticked
down by 2,000 to 215,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet forecast 220,000 new
applications.
Weekly filings for unemployment benefits are considered a proxy for
layoffs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the
U.S. job market.
In its more comprehensive June jobs report last week, the government
reported that employers pulled back on hiring in June, adding only
57,000 jobs. That’s less than half the previous month’s total and a
sign that companies remain cautious.
Wall Street in flux as Iran war drags on
U.S. stocks and oil prices drifted toward a quiet finish of the week
Friday following their earlier fireworks on worries about how the
war with Iran will affect the global flow of crude.
The S&P 500 rose and was on track to close out a fourth winning week
in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up
slightly, and the Nasdaq composite was nearly unchanged.
Oil prices held relatively steady, even after a series of unclaimed
airstrikes hit Iran after the U.S. said it finished its attacks.
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