Lawsuits by Trump allies could shape how the 2030 census is done and who
will be counted
[January 12, 2026]
By MIKE SCHNEIDER
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — The next U.S. census is four years away, but two
lawsuits playing out this year could affect how it will be done and who
will be counted.
Allies of President Donald Trump are behind the federal lawsuits
challenging various aspects of the once-a-decade count by the U.S.
Census Bureau, which is used to determine congressional representation
and how much federal aid flows to the states.
The challenges align with parts of Trump's agenda even as the Republican
administration must defend the agency in court.
A Democratic law firm is representing efforts to intervene in both cases
because of concerns over whether the U.S. Justice Department will defend
the bureau vigorously. There have been no indications so far that
government attorneys are doing otherwise, and department lawyers have
asked that one of the cases be dismissed.
As the challenges work their way through the courts, the Census Bureau
is pushing ahead with its planning for the 2030 count and intends to
conduct practice runs in six locations this year.
The legal challenges
America First Legal, co-founded by Stephen Miller, Trump's deputy chief
of staff, is leading one of the lawsuits, filed in Florida. It contests
methods the bureau has used to protect participants' privacy and to
ensure that people in group-living facilities such as dorms and nursing
homes will be counted.
The lawsuit's intent is to prevent those methods from being used in the
2030 census and to have 2020 figures revised.
“This case is about stopping illegal methods that undermine equal
representation and ensuring the next census complies with the
Constitution," Gene Hamilton, president of America First Legal, said in
a statement.
The other lawsuit was filed in federal court in Louisiana by four
Republican state attorneys general and the Federation for American
Immigration Reform, which opposes illegal immigration and supports
reduced legal immigration. The lawsuit seeks to exclude people who are
in the United States illegally from being counted in the numbers for
redrawing congressional districts.
In both cases, outside groups represented by the Democratic-aligned
Elias Law Group have sought to intervene over concerns that the Justice
Department would reach friendly settlements with the challengers.
In the Florida case, a judge allowed a retirees’ association and two
university students to join the defense as intervenors. Justice
Department lawyers have asked that the case be dismissed.
In the Louisiana lawsuit, government lawyers said three League of Women
Voters chapters and Santa Clara County in California had not shown any
proof that department attorneys would do anything other than robustly
defend the Census Bureau. A judge has yet to rule on their request to
join the case.
A spokesman for the Elias Law Group, Blake McCarren, referred in an
email to its motion to dismiss the Florida case, warning of “a
needlessly chaotic and disruptive effect upon the electoral process” if
the conservative legal group were to prevail and all 50 states had to
redraw their political districts.
Aligning with Trump's agenda
The goals of the lawsuits, particularly the Louisiana case, align with
core parts of Trump's agenda, although the 2030 census will be conducted
under a different president because his second term will end in January
2029.
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Immigration activists rally outside the Supreme Court as the
justices hear arguments over the Trump administration's plan to ask
about citizenship on the 2020 census, in Washington, April 23, 2019.
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
During his first term, for the 2020 census, Trump tried to prevent
those who are in the U.S. illegally from being used in the
apportionment numbers, which determine how many congressional
representatives and Electoral College votes each state receives. He
also sought to have citizenship data collected through
administrative records.
A Republican redistricting expert had written that using only the
citizen voting-age population, rather than the total population, for
the purpose of redrawing congressional and state legislative
districts could be advantageous to Republicans and non-Hispanic
whites.
Both Trump orders were rescinded when Democratic President Joe Biden
arrived at the White House in January 2021, before the 2020 census
figures were released by the Census Bureau. The first Trump
administration also attempted to add a citizenship question to the
2020 census questionnaire, a move that was blocked by the U.S.
Supreme Court.
In August, Trump instructed the U.S. Commerce Department to change
the way the Census Bureau collects data, seeking to exclude
immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. Neither officials at the
White House nor the Commerce Department, which oversees the Census
Bureau, explained what actions were being taken in response to the
president's social media post.
Congressional Republicans have introduced legislation to exclude
noncitizens from the apportionment process. That could shrink the
head count in both red and blue states because the states with the
most people in the U.S. illegally include California, Texas, Florida
and New York, according to the Pew Research Center.
The Constitution's 14th Amendment says “the whole number of persons
in each state” should be counted for the numbers used for
apportionment. The numbers also guide the distribution of $2.8
trillion in federal dollars to the states for roads, health care and
other programs.
Defending the Census Bureau
The Louisiana lawsuit was filed at the end of the Biden
administration and put on hold in March at the request of the
Commerce Department. Justice Department lawyers representing the
Cabinet agency said they needed time to consider the position of the
new leadership in the second Trump administration. The state
attorneys general in December asked for that hold to be lifted.
So far, in the court record, there is nothing to suggest that those
government attorneys have done anything to undermine the Census
Bureau's defense in both cases, despite the intervenors' concerns.
In the Louisiana case, Justice Department lawyers argued against
lifting the hold, saying the Census Bureau was in the middle of
planning for the 2030 census: “At this stage of such preparations,
lifting the stay is not appropriate.”
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