Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Closing Markets: Corn: -1 old & -2 new. Beans: -13 old & -9 new. Wheat: -2.
Market Recap:
Markets were lower on Tuesday, led to the downside by the soybean complex. Corn and wheat were a little more mixed, as old crop contracts were closer to unchanged while the new crop sagged. Boots on the ground report some of the best rains in a long time across Central IA this morning, as several storm systems look to make their way across the Northwestern part of the corn belt. Further East, dust is flying in Illinois with several sources indicating a good start has been made to both corn and soybean planting in the last 72 hours.
Products were lower, May bean meal closed at 335.30, down $3.20/ton, and May bean oil closed at 44.91, down 56 points. As a reminder, the May bean oil contract low from February is 44.18. Livestock markets were again higher, June live cattle closed at 175.72, up $1.90, May feeders were up $2.97 at 240.97, and June hogs closed at 102.82, up 37 cents. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are trading 10-15 cents/bbl lower, the Dow Jones index is up 75 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points.
Spreads were mixed, corn spreads were penny to a penny and 1/2 firmer on old crop farmer selling, while soybean spreads were 1-4 cents weaker. CK/CN closed at -11 3/4, while SK/SN closed at -15. -15 1/2 is the contract low for SK/SN.
USDA did not announce any new daily sales today for the first time in three trading sessions.
Fresh breaking news was absent on Tuesday, as the US producer begins the Spring seeding campaign where soils are not too wet. Sources in the Western corn belt are indicating commercials are beginning to increase basis to pry bushels from the farmer. Low flat prices through winter have limited movement for the most part; farmers have sold only on an "as needed" basis, while elevators have taken the same approach and mostly bought hand-to-mouth. As seeding begins, merchandisers know bushels will only get harder to come by as the farmer gets in the tractor.
Cash sources in Brazil also indicate an increase in farmer selling, which has added to selling pressure in Chicago. The Brazilian Real has weakened to its weakest level vs the USD in over a year at 5.27:1 this morning. According to AgResource, it is estimated that some 7-8 mmt's of corn and soybean sales have been made by Brazilian farmers in the last 10 days.
Other news Tuesday again fell into the bucket of South American crop estimates. Dr. Michael Cordonnier adjusted his Argentina corn production forecast lower by 3 mmt's to 50 mmt's, which is now well below the USDA. He also raised his Brazilian soybean estimate to 147 mmt's, up from 145 mmt's in his previous report. Next, Brazilian oilseed lobby Abiove raised their estimate of Brazil's 2023 soybean harvest to 160.3 mmt's. This is still below USDA’s 162 mmt's, but the upward adjustment went directly to ending stocks, which the group now sees at a record 5.9 mmt's. This obviously went straight to the beginning stocks number for the current crop year, which in turn caused an upward adjustment of 1.2 mmt's for 2024/25 ending stocks.
Weather models continue to show good rain for the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow. Iowa sees 3 storm systems today into tomorrow that look to bring good moisture to one of the driest areas of the corn belt. Models are forecasting a generally typical spring pattern into the end of April, with frequent troughs bringing stormy weather from the plains across the Mississippi. A pattern shift is still advertised beyond the end of April for the Eastern Midwest.
Concern is again surfacing regarding excessive moisture in Northern Argentina negatively effecting crop quality. Otherwise, the forecast is unchanged at mid-day. Safrinha corn areas will see good rains in most all areas besides the East/Central. Heat is beginning to show up in this area as well in the two-week period, which will need monitoring.
Choppiness likely continues at the CBOT until more is known regarding US Spring weather and the conflict in the Middle East. As was the case this morning, there is not a lot of new updates on the situation there. It was reported today that Israel's war cabinet met to discuss next steps, but no further details were given. Tensions in this part of the world are not lessening and are not going away.
Have a great evening!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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