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Respondents’ views of their present situation improved, but
their short-term outlook soured.
Americans remain frustrated with the economy after five years of
elevated inflation, potentially posing a risk to President
Donald Trump and Republicans in the midterm elections, which are
less than 70 days away.
Write-in responses to the board’s survey, collected from Aug. 3
to Aug. 16, were slightly more pessimistic this month.
References to prices in general—and oil and gas prices
specifically—remained elevated. Comments about war and
geopolitics, food prices, trade and jobs rose in August.
Trump continues to blame high prices on his predecessor,
Democrat Joe Biden, yet inflation has risen since Trump’s
inauguration last year.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the personal
consumption expenditures price index—was up 3.7% in June from a
year earlier. That was down from May’s 4.1% year-over-year
increase but up from 2.8% before the Iran war began on Feb. 28.
It was 2.5% when Trump was inaugurated in January 2025.
The government issues its July PCE data Wednesday.
Consumers’ views of the current labor market improved in August,
with 27% saying jobs were “plentiful,” up from 24.4% in July.
However, respondents were more negative about the labor market
over the next six months, with just 14.6% expecting more jobs to
be available, down from 16.4% last month.
The U.S. job market stalled unexpectedly in July as employers
cut 23,000 jobs. To make matters worse, Labor Department
revisions erased 103,000 jobs from previously reported May and
June payrolls.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but for the wrong reason:
Thousands of people dropped out of the labor market, leaving
fewer people competing for work.
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