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Claims for jobless benefits are a proxy for layoffs, and
economists watch them because they can be a harbinger for where
the job market is headed. For the past year, claims have been at
a historically low range of around 200,000 to 230,000 a week.
“The labor market has yet to show any sign of wear and tear from
the surge in oil prices since the start of the war with Iran and
the global energy supply shock,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist
at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary.
The number of people collecting unemployment benefits the week
that ended Aug. 8 rose to 1.8 million from 1.78 million the week
before.
The U.S. unemployment rate is low at 4.1%, partly because the
economy has proved resilient in the face of higher energy
prices. But it’s also because President Donald Trump’s
immigration crackdown and the ongoing retirement of baby boomers
mean that fewer people are competing for jobs: More than 1.3
million people have dropped out of the U.S. labor force over the
past year.
The job market is tough for those looking for their first job
and for those who lost their jobs and are looking for new work.
At the same time, companies, remembering the worker shortages
that followed the end of COVID-19 lockups, are still reluctant
to let go of staff; but they aren’t eager to take on new
workers. Economists regularly refer to a “no hire, no fire″ job
market.
In July, companies, government agencies and nonprofits together
cut 23,000 jobs. So far this year, employers are adding 61,000
jobs a month. That is an improvement on the 9,700 they averaged
last year — the weakest hiring outside a recession since 2002.
The lingering effects of high interest rates and Trump’s erratic
trade policies discouraged companies from hiring in 2025.
Hiring this year remains well below the 166,00 monthly jobs
created, on average, in 2023 and 2024, let alone the 491,000 a
month recorded during the 2021-2022 hiring boom that followed
pandemic lockdowns.
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