Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal
Reserve fill out a busy week
[October 24, 2026] By
DAMIAN J. TROISE
NEW YORK (AP) — A key update on inflation and its impact on consumer
confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy
calendar this week along with more big earnings reports.
They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that will
determine the future makeup of Congress as the U.S. economy grapples
with constantly shifting global trade conflicts and a global oil
shortage brought on by the U.S. war with Iran. Inflation is stubbornly
high, consumers are losing confidence and the resilient jobs market is
showing more signs of stress.
Here’s a look at some of the key reports coming in the week ahead.
Consumer confidence keeps falling as inflation squeezes household
budgets
Americans are losing confidence in the economy as rising prices for
everything from gas to groceries guts budgets. The latest consumer
confidence survey from business group The Conference Board on Tuesday is
expected to show that consumer confidence kept shrinking in October.
The last report showed that confidence plunged in September to the
lowest level in more than a decade. The October report is expected to
show confidence kept weakening. Consumer confidence is down sharply from
two years ago, according to the survey. In that time, the U.S. has waged
a wide-ranging trade war with much of the world, including its neighbors
and closest trading partners. The uncertainty around the sudden shifts
in tariffs left businesses and consumers wary about planning ahead over
worries about higher costs. The U.S. war with Iran that started in 2026
slashed global oil supplies and added more fuel to rising prices.
The Federal Reserve struggles to contain rising inflation
The Federal Reserve will close out a two-day meeting on Wednesday and is
expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady following a hike at
its September meeting. The central bank has been signaling that it is
still worried about inflation and that it may have to continue raising
rates to help tame rising costs. Wall Street still expects that one more
rate hike is coming at the Fed's meeting in December.
Higher interest rates make borrowing more costly, which in turn can slow
economic growth and cool stubbornly hot inflation. The Fed has to
balance taming inflation with supporting the jobs market. Higher
interest rates and slower economic growth could dampen rising inflation,
but they could also hurt job growth at a time when the somewhat
resilient employment market is showing signs of stress.
Economic growth faces the impact of stubborn inflation, weakening
consumer confidence
The U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday will release its initial
report on economic growth during the third quarter and economists expect
a sluggish result. Economists are forecasting that gross domestic
product, which is the nation's output of goods and services, rose 1.7%
from July through September. It's the first of three reports for
third-quarter GDP and can be revised higher or lower.
The forecast for the initial assessment marks an easing from 2.2% growth
during the second quarter. GDP growth has been slowing since the first
quarter under pressure from higher oil prices fueling already stubbornly
high inflation. Growth has been bolstered by a strong stock market and
businesses investing in artificial intelligence technology. Households,
though, have been struggling with higher costs on everything from gas to
groceries eating up more of their budgets at the same time that average
wages for workers stagnate.
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A sticker placed by an unidentified person depicting President
Donald Trump and reading "I DID THAT!" is affixed beside gasoline
and diesel prices at a gas station in Newtown, Pa., Sept. 9, 2026.
(AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey, file)
 Inflation keeps heating up as US
war with Iran squeezes global oil supplies
The latest inflation update is expected to show that prices on
everything from gasoline to clothing and groceries marched higher at
a faster rate in September. The U.S. will release the personal
consumption expenditures report, or PCE, on Thursday and economists
expect that inflation jumped at a 3.7% rate, up from a 3.4% rate in
August.
The PCE is the preferred measure of inflation used by the Fed, which
wants to bring inflation down to its target rate of 2%. Several
other measures of inflation have also moved stubbornly above a 3%.
Inflation has been rising at an even sharper rate since the U.S. war
with Iran started in February, essentially shutting down the vital
Strait of Hormuz and stifling the global oil supply. That has
prompted a surge in gasoline prices that have been a direct hit to
household budgets. Higher diesel fuel costs raised the cost of
shipping and warehousing goods, which businesses typically pass
along to consumers.
The latest updates on retail sales show that household spending
remains strong, on the surface. Much of that spending, though, is
the result of paying higher costs, especially for gasoline.
Corporate earnings reports could shed light on AI investments and
household spending
Investors have another busy week of earnings ahead, with reports
from big names that could provide more insight on plans for AI
spending and how inflation is influencing profits.
The most closely-watched reports this week are likely to be the big
technology or technology-related companies that have seen their
stock values surge as they heavily invest in artificial-intelligence
technology with hopes for a big benefit. Google's parent company
Alphabet reports its results on Wednesday, with Intel and Amazon
reporting their latest results on Thursday. Analysts expect all
three companies to report profit gains as Wall Street tries to
determine whether their big AI investments will translate into
future growth and whether their outsized stock values are justified.
A wide range of other companies will report results this week,
shedding more light on inflation's impact across industries.
Shipping company UPS and beverage giant Coca-Cola report results on
Tuesday. Starbucks reports its results on Thursday, while oil giants
Exxon Mobil and Chevron report their results on Friday.
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