Census shows Illinois under-20 population declining faster than national
average
[July 08, 2026]
By Sean Reed | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – Recently released data from the U.S. Census Bureau
revealed Illinois has seen outsized shifts in its population by age
demographic when compared to the national average.
The population of young residents in the state is decreasing at a rate
multiple times the national average.
According to Bryce Hill, senior director of fiscal and economic analysis
for the Illinois Policy Institute, the new data reveals demographics of
the state’s population are shifting differently to other states.
“The 20s, 30s and 40s age groups nationally are growing between 4.3% and
5.5% over the past five years. Meanwhile, those groups in Illinois are
growing at 1.2% – or slower than that,” Hill said.
He also said the youth, or under 20, population became smaller
nationally as a result of decreased birth rates and the process of
aging, but the population of young Illinoisans was falling at a sharper
rate.
“The starkest contrast that we found was that Illinois' young
population, those who are under 20, is declining rapidly. That
population has declined by about 7% since July 1st, 2020,” Hill said.
“Meanwhile, the US as a whole, that population has only declined by
about 2%.”
Hill said the state’s decline can’t be attributed to natural processes
alone, but instead it's a combination of factors that includes
outmigration of residents from the state.
“We have very similar birth rates, we have a similar median age, we have
a similar age distribution as the rest of the nation. However, the
population trends are working against Illinois,” Hill said.
He noted lawmakers should be aware and seek to emulate the conditions in
other states that Illinois residents are leaving for.
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A roadside sign reads "Welcome to Illinois, The Land of Lincoln,"
next to highway signs for Chicago and Indianapolis. Photo: Sarah
Roderick-Fitch / The Center Square
Previous outmigration data The Center Square reported on revealed
one of the primary reasons people are leaving the state is due to
the high burden of taxes placed on residents, especially compared to
neighboring states.
The Tax Foundation reports Illinois ranks as 10th largest in terms
of individual local and state tax collection per capita, according
to data from the 2023 fiscal year.
All five states that border Illinois fell within the bottom half of
the ranking based on the same data.
Hill said taxes are a likely culprit, especially as multiple major
population centers in the state sit relatively near state lines.
He noted lawmakers will have to address long-term issues sooner if
age demographics in the state don’t begin to course correct.
“[The data is] representing fewer and fewer taxpayers to shoulder
the burden of government. We have very large fixed costs for
government in the state of Illinois. Most notably, the state's
unfunded pension liabilities, which are right now hovering around
$140 billion,” Hill said.
Other potential issues include a decline in the rate of people
entering the workforce, making it potentially more difficult for
employers to fill jobs in Illinois and potentially driving off new
economic investment, according to Hill.
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