Legislative revenue estimate more than $700M lower than Pritzker’s
proposed budget
[March 06, 2025]
By Ben Szalinski
SPRINGFIELD — Lawmakers’ projections for revenues in the coming year
aren’t as high as Gov. JB Pritzker’s, raising questions about how much
money will be available during this year’s budget negotiations. The
General Assembly’s bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and
Accountability released a new fiscal year 2026 revenue projection
Tuesday that is $737 million short of the proposal Pritzker introduced
last month.
“At this point with all the uncertainty that’s been talked about, it’s
best to have more of a cautious approach,” COGFA Revenue Manager Eric
Noggle said at the commission’s meeting Tuesday.
COGFA is projecting $54.2 billion in revenue for the fiscal year
beginning July 1, which is $1.2 billion less than Pritzker’s proposed
$55.5 billion revenue plan. However, the governor’s plan calls for a
series of revenue adjustments that close the predicted gap between his
office and COGFA down to $737 million.
The Trump Administration is on a path of cutting federal spending,
including money that gets passed to the states for programs, and
imposing tariffs on trade partners that experts say could cause prices
and inflation to rise.
“The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget team always uses the
most up-to-date data available to us in our forecasts from outside firms
like S&P,” a spokesperson for Pritzker said in a statement. “As COFGA
itself says in the report, the Trump Administration and Republicans in
Congress are imposing tariffs as a tax on working families, giving tax
cuts to the wealthiest Americans, and mishandling geopolitical relations
that are creating national economic uncertainties and impacting other
projections.”
Republicans argued Pritzker relied on “fuzzy math” to avoid making
spending cuts.
“This means he and his Democratic allies will either have to cut
spending, increase taxes or both,” Sen. Don DeWitte, R-St. Charles, a
member of COGFA, said in a statement. “It is time for the governor to
take a break from the national stage and focus on the dire financial
situation he has created by irresponsible spending in our state.”
COGFA is also projecting a more conservative estimate about the current
fiscal year. The commission expects Illinois to finish FY 2025 with
$53.6 billion of revenue, which would be $333 million more than
lawmakers budgeted. However, that estimate is $286 million less than
GOMB’s estimated $53.9 billion for FY 2025.
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Gov. JB Pritzker discusses his proposed fiscal year 2026 budget with
reporters at the Capitol on Feb. 19, 2025. (Capitol News Illinois
photo by Andrew Adams)
“The Commission is not as optimistic in its projections for some of the
economically-tied resources such as the sales tax and the income taxes,”
COGFA’s report said. “At this time, the Commission feels that a more
cautious approach is warranted given the economic uncertainties related
to the current volatile geopolitical climate, potential tariffs, changes
in the federal workforce, and outcomes of other potential policy changes
at the federal level.”
Strong income tax returns are providing the state with a boost this
year. Personal income tax receipts are projected to be 4.6% higher for
FY 2025 than what lawmakers budgeted. That’s helping to make up for the
lackluster performance of corporate income taxes, which COGFA projects
will end the year 12% lower than expected. Sales taxes are also expected
to end the year 3.3% lower than expected.
GOMB Director Alexis Sturm told a House committee last week April income
tax receipts could provide a boost this year.
“Our focus really needs to be on how much income tax is going to
perform” heading into FY26, Noggle said, because Illinois’ revenue
structure is dependent on income taxes meeting expectations.
But COGFA officials also warned there is a tremendous amount of
uncertainty in the economy that could change revenue projections, and
the commission could revisit estimates in May before lawmakers push a
budget out the door by May 31.
S&P Global’s new February baseline forecast projects real GDP growth of
2%, lower than previous estimates, and rising unemployment in 2025 and
2026, according to the report.
COGFA Chief Economist Ben Varner said Tuesday President Donald Trump’s
newest tariffs are also slightly higher than S&P included in their
modeling.
The governor’s $55.2 billion budget is based on a December S&P Global
forecast that projected stable economic growth and took into account
some of Trump’s proposed economic policies, including tariffs and tax
cut extensions, Sturm said last week.
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