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Fred Giertz, emeritus professor of economics at the University
of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said the increase comes during a
long-term period of gradual decline.
“Now, decline doesn't mean the economy is getting worse. It
means that the economy is not going ahead as fast as it
otherwise would. So where we are right now is a period of modest
growth, but slower than we have been the last several years,”
Giertz told The Center Square.
Giertz said Illinois has a low unemployment rate by historic
standards, but it’s still above the national average.
"Illinois, as most people know, even though we're growing here,
we're not growing as fast as the rest of the country,” Giertz
said.
Major components of the flash index for June 2026 showed
year-over-year increases.
Giertz said individual income tax revenues have been strong all
year, possibly driven by large capital gains.
“That increases the revenue, so the fact that the stock markets
have been strong in the last year or so probably had an impact
there,” Giertz said.
Giertz said higher sales tax receipts reflect real growth over
and above higher prices.
“Every month, the tax revenues are, the term is called deflated,
that is, the inflation is basically taken out of them. So all
the numbers are based on real values, the same purchasing power
over a period of time,” Giertz said.
Giertz said corporate tax revenues are lower than last year but
still very good by historic standards.
Giertz said the flash index was devised almost 30 years ago in
the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public
Affairs, because federal and state government data doesn’t come
out for weeks or months after a given month ends.
“We decided to use the tax revenue as kind of a surrogate or a
substitute or a quick measure of how the economy is doing, so
that's been the substance of the Flash Index for several decades
now,” Giertz said.
Giertz said the index is very good for quickness, but
adjustments have to be made to deal with unusual situations
regarding tax revenues, such as changes in cash flow patterns.
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