Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for
investigations from lawmakers
[April 10, 2026]
By KEN SWEET
NEW YORK (AP) — Calls are increasing inside Congress for investigations
into the prediction market platform Polymarket after the latest instance
where groups of anonymous traders made strategic, well-timed bets on a
major geopolitical event hours before it occurred.
On Wednesday, The Associated Press reported that at least 50 brand new
accounts on Polymarket placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire
in the hours, even minutes, before President Donald Trump announced the
ceasefire late Tuesday on social media. These were the sole bets made on
Polymarket through these accounts.
In January, an anonymous Polymarket user made a $400,000 profit by
betting that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be out of office,
hours before Maduro was captured. In the hours before the start of the
Iran war, another account made roughly $550,000 in a series of trades
effectively betting that the U.S. would strike Iran and that Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei would be removed from office.
Such prescient wagers have raised eyebrows — and accusations that
prediction markets are ripe for insider trading. And the issue goes
beyond these three geopolitical events, according to at least one
report. Researchers at Harvard University released a paper last month
where, using public blockchain data, they estimated that $143 million in
profits have been made on Polymarket by individuals who potentially had
insider information about events ranging from Taylor Swift's engagement
to the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize last year.
Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y who sits on the House Financial Services
Committee as well as the subcommittee on digital assets and financial
technology, sent a letter Thursday to the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission demanding the regulator review and investigate these
well-timed trades. The CFTC regulates the derivatives markets, which
includes prediction markets.
“This pattern raises serious concerns that certain market participants
may have had access to material nonpublic information regarding a
market-moving geopolitical event,” Torres wrote. The letter was shared
exclusively with The AP.
“What is the statistical likelihood that of anyone other than an insider
trader placing a winning bet 12 minutes before a market-moving
presidential announcement,” Torres said in an interview with AP. “There
are two answers: God, or an insider trader. And something tells me that
God it not placing bets around Donald Trump’s posts on Truth Social. "
Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow their users
to bet on everything from whether it will rain in Phoenix, Arizona next
week to whether the Federal Reserve will raise or lower interest rates.
At this time, U.S. residents have limited access to Polymarket, which
was banned from the U.S. in 2022. The company has moved to reenter the
country by acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, giving
it a legal pathway to start offering contracts domestically. The company
has begun a limited rollout in the U.S.
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Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., listens during a House committee on
homeland security hearing addressing threats to election security at
the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, July 20, 2022. (AP
Photo/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades, File)
Polymarket also operates a separate, crypto-based platform offshore
that remains outside U.S. jurisdiction. That platform accounts for
most of its activity.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Connecticut, sent a letter to Polymarket
on Thursday demanding the company explain why it continues to allow
trades on war and violence as well as whether the company is making
any efforts to keep insiders from trading on the platform.
“Polymarket has become an illicit market to sell and exploit
national security secrets unlike any in history, and by extension a
potential honeypot for foreign intelligence services watching for
those same suspicious bets and wagers,” Blumenthal wrote.
Republicans have also criticized these platforms and called for bans
on these sorts of bets. There are at least two bills pending in
Congress co-signed by both parties, one in the House and one in the
Senate.
“We don’t want to imagine a world where America’s adversaries use
prediction markets to anticipate our next move,” said Rep. Blake
Moore, R-Utah, after the release of the AP’s findings on the
ceasefire wagers.
Polymarket did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
The stakes are high for both Kalshi and Polymarket as they seek
approval to operate in the U.S. and nationwide, particularly in the
lucrative sports betting market.
Kalshi, which is already regulated in the U.S., and its executives
have a goal of making the company the nation's dominant prediction
market. Kalshi has also leaned heavily into sports, which critics
have said effectively makes it a sports betting platform that
dabbles in event-based contracts on the side. Both companies have
also announced partnerships with sports teams and even news
organizations to broaden their reach as well. The AP has an
agreement to sell U.S. elections data to Kalshi.
The competition also carries political overtones. Donald Trump Jr.
is an investor in Polymarket through his venture capital firm, 1789
Capital, and separately serves as a paid strategic adviser to
Kalshi.
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