Russia and Ukraine's combined war casualties could reach 2 million soon,
report estimates
[January 29, 2026]
By KAMILA HRABCHUK
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The number of soldiers killed, injured or missing
on both sides of Russia's war on Ukraine could be 2 million by spring,
with Russia sustaining the largest number of troop deaths for any major
power in any conflict since World War II, a report warned Tuesday.
The report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies came
less than a month before the fourth anniversary of Moscow's full-scale
invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
As the war grinds through another bitterly cold winter, Russian strikes
damaged an apartment block Wednesday on the outskirts of Kyiv, killing
two people. Nine others were injured in attacks in the Ukrainian cities
of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih and in the front-line Zaporizhzhia region.
The CSIS report said Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including
up to 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025.
“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that
Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in
decline as a major power,” the report said. “No major power has suffered
anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since
World War II."
It estimated that Ukraine, with its smaller army and population, had
suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 military casualties, including up to
140,000 deaths.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, and each
side seeks to amplify the other side’s casualties.
Commenting on the report, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said
Wednesday that the research could not be considered “reliable
information” and that only Russia’s Ministry of Defense was authorized
to provide information on military losses.
The ministry has not released figures on battlefield deaths since a
statement in September 2022 that said just under 6,000 Russian soldiers
had been killed.
The Ukrainian government had no immediate comment on the report. In an
interview with NBC in February 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy said that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed
since the war began.
The CSIS report estimated that at current rates, combined Russian and
Ukrainian casualties may be as high as 1.8 million and could reach 2
million by spring.
The figures from the CSIS were compiled using the Washington-based think
tank’s own analysis, data published by independent Russian news site
Mediazona with the BBC, estimates by the British government and
interviews with state officials.
A war of attrition
Reports about military losses have been repressed in Russian media,
activists and independent journalists say.
[to top of second column]
|
People pass a crater and damaged cars near an apartment building
after a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Wednesday, Jan. 28,
2026. (AP Photo/Kateryna Klochko)
Mediazona, together with the BBC and a team of volunteers, has so
far collected the names of more than 160,000 troops killed by
scouring news reports, social media and government websites.
The report also said Russian forces were advancing at a sluggish
pace since they seized the initiative on the battlefield in 2024,
despite their much larger size.
Russia’s advance in Ukraine has largely settled into a grinding war
of attrition, and analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin is
in no rush to find a settlement, despite his army’s difficulties on
the roughly 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line.
The report said Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of
between 15 and 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in their most
prominent offensives.
That is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war
in the last century,” the report said.
Putin told his annual news conference last month that 700,000
Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine. He gave the same number in
2024, and a slightly lower figure — 617,000 — in December 2023. It
was not possible to verify those figures.
2 killed in attack in Kyiv region
Officials said Wednesday that two people were killed near the
Ukrainian capital and at least nine others were injured in attacks
across Ukraine.
A man and a woman died in an overnight attack in the Bilohorodka
area on the outskirts of Kyiv, according to Mykola Kalashnyk, head
of the regional military administration.
Officials in the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, as well
as the Zaporizhzhia region, also reported Russian strikes overnight,
wounding at least nine people and damaging infrastructure.
Ukraine's air force said that Russia attacked overnight with one
ballistic missile and 146 strike drones, 103 of which were shot down
or destroyed using electronic warfare.
Meanwhile, Russia's Ministry of Defense said its air defenses
destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones overnight. Twenty-four were shot down
over Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region, with 23 more shot down
over the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2016.
Two drones were reportedly shot down over Russia's Voronezh region,
where Ukraine's General Staff said Wednesday that it had struck the
Khokholskaya oil depot. Regional Gov. Alexander Gusev wrote on
Telegram that falling drone debris sparked a fire involving oil
products, but did not give further details.
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved |
