Number of perfect March Madness
brackets dwindles into the hundreds after the first round
[March 21, 2026]
By WILL GRAVES
The odds of a picking perfect NCAA Tournament bracket are
astronomical for a reason.
The number of unblemished entries in ESPN's bracket challenge
dropped to 195 after the completion of the first round, even with
all the high-seeded favorites winning — and defending national
champion Florida doing it by 59 points against Prairie View A&M, the
second-largest victory margin in tournament history.
Translation: Over 99.999% of the 26 million-plus brackets entered
have already been busted.
It was much the same over at the NCAA's bracket challenge, where
only 234 error-free entries remained.
Things were off to a slightly better start for those who gave ESPN's
women's bracket challenge a shot. More than 675,000 perfect brackets
remained after Friday's games. Yet even with the higher seeds
prevailing in every contest, well over 2 million entries had already
fallen by the wayside.
Kalshi, a leader in prediction markets — in which users buy and
trade shares based on potential event outcomes — is offering $1
billion (yes, that’s billion with a “b”) to anyone who predicts all
63 tournament games correctly, with a “consolation” prize of $1
million to the person who finishes with the top-scoring bracket.
The dream of becoming a billionaire was still alive for 83 people
when Friday's games tipped off.
The unpredictability of the tournament is one of the reasons the
odds of going 63-0 are somewhere between one in 9.2 quintillion (for
totally random guesses) or one in 120 billion (semi-educated ones).
It can also serve as a boon for bookmakers. A record $3.3 billion is
expected to be wagered legally on the men's tournament, according to
the American Gaming Association.
While hard numbers on the amount of wagering done Thursday were
unavailable, BetMGM spokesman John Ewing noted the tournament —
which he said generates about as much action as the Super Bowl — is
one of the uncommon instances where bettors put their money where
their hearts are.
Though the top seeds have performed well in recent years, a lot of
the action during the opening weekend goes elsewhere as fans try to
cash in on potential Cinderellas.
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Kentucky's Otega Oweh (00) is congratulated by teammates after
sinking a basket at the end of regulation to send the game into
overtime in the first round of the NCAA college basketball
tournament against Santa Clara, Friday, March 20, 2026, in St.
Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
“In March Madness, underdogs and upsets are such a
popular theme and part of our culture that even though favorites
have done so well lately, we still see underdogs taking a majority
of bets in many games,” Ewing said.
That was certainly the case on Thursday night when 16th-seeded Siena
opened a double-digit lead over top-seeded Duke. Wagers on the
Saints pulling off the stunner spiked at halftime, meaning the house
did pretty well when the Blue Devils rallied.
While Duke survived and advanced, its struggles did not go
unnoticed. The Blue Devils opened the tournament as the betting
favorites to win it all.
That wasn't the case Friday morning, when Arizona replaced Duke as
the top choice among futures bettors at BetMGM, followed by
Michigan, with the Blue Devils falling to third.
Ewing said the dip was more about support for the Wildcats than it
was a knock on Duke. He added there have been wagers of $50,000 on
Arizona and Houston to win it all, with another bettor putting
$100,000 on Purdue to reach the Final Four.
Betting interest in the women's tournament continues to increase,
which Ewing attributed to part of the ripple effect of Caitlin Clark
bringing more eyes to the sport. The ability to watch every game has
also helped.
“I think people are just realizing it’s just as much fun as the
men’s tournament,” Ewing said.
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